Methodology Briefing Papers
In our visits to councils we have seen a variety of techniques and tools to forecast demand, plan capacity and develop commissioning plans. Councils have worked collaboratively with each other and with external service providers to tackle key problems.
The Briefing Papers provide, in a standard format, introductions to a range of methodology and services.
CSED thanks councils and suppliers for providing information. We welcome comments on these techniques and on other approaches councils have used successfully.
Briefing Papers featured are:
- SHAPE is a web-enabled database application developed by DH to support SHAs and PCTs in strategic planning of services and physical assets across the health economy and assist integration of health and social care services.
- Planning4care from Care Equation and OCSI was formally launched in October 2007. Analysis and results for all English authorities are available immediately.
- Whole Systems Partnership provides support to clients in the development of ‘bespoke' system dynamic models that address specific strategic challenges, in commissioning new service models or the redesign of existing services.
- Dr Foster is partnering with five authorities as Trailblazers to develop a suite of analytical products and services for JSNA. A second wave of local Authorities is being recruited to develop these tools further.
- Crystal Blue Consulting completed a study for the South East Centre of Excellence on procurement of Nursing Home places for older people with mental health needs.
- CareandHealth Partners delivered a report on Learning Disabilities for Hertfordshire. The work assessed the demand for services, existing commissioning plans and resource utilisation with recommendations for future provision and financial impacts.
- KIGS, the Key Indicators Graphical System, has been redeveloped by Dr Foster Intelligence to provide an excellent and comprehensive presentation of council PAF indicators for benchmarking.
- The South West Agency for Learning Disabilities developed a benchmarking tool for commissioners to estimate the typical cost of care packages before contacting providers.
- Surrey County Council commissioned Laing and Buisson to analyse the likely needs and capacity of different levels of social care within Surrey and the report provides a thorough examination of drivers of needs and capacity.
- The Balance of Care group have developed a sophisticated planning tool looking at care pathways within the health and social care system and adapted this to show how Telecare could change the shape of services in a local area.
- DH Corporate Analytical Team developed a ‘Whole Systems' model using system dynamics software to support planning across the health and social care economy.
- DfES developed the 'Easy Monte Carlo' spreadsheet planning tool for Joint Commissioning. With best- and worst-case inputs, the model simulates complex scenarios, shows graphically the range of outcomes for costs and timing and the probability of over spending.
- Tribal Consulting used data from 10 authorities to build a statistically robust Excel spreadsheet tool for ward-level projections of costs/need for services for the West Midlands Performance Network.
- Symmetric SD Ltd specialise in using the System Dynamics methodology to model health and social care and over the last few years have built many models for a range of organisations.
- FLoSC analyses the history of people in your residential and nursing homes and forecasts the future length of stay and cost of the people in care today.
- Whole Systems Partnership (WSP) LD Model - WSP have used iThink software to develop a model with Cheshire County Council relating to ‘living options' for people with a Learning Disability over a 20 year period.
CSED is providing this information as an overview of the methodology. Councils will need to evaluate proposals from suppliers in the light of their local situation before making decisions on specific applications.
To share other examples of good practice contact the CSED Demand Forecasting and Capacity Planning workstream leader, Ray Beatty. mailto:Ray.Beatty@dh.gsi.gov.uk