Demand Forecasting & Capacity Planning
The White Paper Our health, our care, our say, highlights the need for councils to forecast future demand and led to the statutory requirement for Joint Strategic Needs Assessments [JSNA].
CSED consultation had confirmed demand forecasting as a problem area for councils with social service responsibilities [CSSRs]. CSSRs spend, on average, £100 million a year on adult social care. Changing population profiles and innovations in commissioning and consumer choice across the health economy make effective demand forecasting and monitoring vital.
POPPI - Projecting Older People Population Information
CSED delivered POPPI (Projecting Older People Population Information) a web based population forecasting tool in March 2007 and we now have over 2,500 registered users. POPPI has been updated for the the latest ONS population projections and enhancements discussed with council users at regional application workshops. The current version is POPPI 2.2. For more details download the user guide - Getting started with POPPI.
PANSI - Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information
Existing users of CSED’s POPPI system requested a similar model for young adult care needs, prompted by concerns around the prevalence of Learning Disabilities.
FLOSC - Forecasting Length of Stay and Cost
The FLoSC system analyses movements to and from residential and nursing homes to forecast the future cost of current residents - a cost councils are committed to based on past decisions. The latest version, FLoSC 1.5, makes the system easier to use and results can be compared with other councils.
Configuring Joint Preventive Services - New in 2008
This paper outlines a structured approach to service transformation at the interface between health and social care for follow up projects to JSNA. It includes evidence for preventive service reconfiguration for 6 conditions affecting older people and a tested implementation approach.
The Anticipating Future Needs Toolkit provides an innovative and effective consultation approach to understanding the needs, preferences and expectations of older people to meet the requirements of JSNA. It includes interview and focus group questionnaires and templates.
Sixteen Methodology Briefing Papers provide concise information on projects, products and services used by councils in demand forecasting and planning
Outline Processes - Documentation
Download Version 1.0 of CSED's demand forecasting and capacity planning process recommendations.
This workstream is supported by a core group of 28 councils acting as a sounding board for future development and implementation of POPPI and other tools.
New council members are welcome to join. There are no onerous obligations and core group councils get an early view of project results, deliverables and toolkits.
Contact workstream leader: Ray Beatty